NOAA: Above-Normal Hurricane Season

  NOAA: Above-Normal 

    Hurricane Season

St. Croix Times Staff

     Forecasters within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the 2025 season which runs from June 1 to November 30. Specifically, they predict a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. 

     The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3,4,or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

     “NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”

     There are a confluence of factors that NOAA is using to base their predictions, including continued ENSO-neutral (El Nino/La Nina) conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts of weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.  

     The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption. 

     This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African Monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms. 

     Colorado State University’s hurricane forecasting team is also predicting an active season, with 17 total named storms, of which 9 will be hurricanes.

     AccuWeather’s forecast calls for 13-18 named storms, with 7-10 turning into hurricanes. 

     The record for the most actual named storms in a season was 30, set in 2020.