2025 Hurricanes Go Bye-Bye, But Why?

M.A. Dworkin

The Atlantic - The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been suspiciously quiet. Is a big storm waiting to exit off the African Coast and barrel its way across the Caribbean? Is there still a Cape Verde Hurricane in its early stages of development? At this point it doesn’t seem too likely. 

“The Conga line of tropical waves exiting Africa that hits its peak by late August and September - is a little late to the party this season,” wrote hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry in his recent report. 

We have passed the peak of the Hurricane Season, which usually takes place mid-September to mid-October. There is not much activity directed at the USVI from late October on through November. So what gives? Why has the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season been so quiet? And why have most of the storms been taking a right turn way before they reach the islands and wind up as Fish Storms?

“Where the heck are the Atlantic #hurricanes?” Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University wrote recently on X. 

“This is only the second time that no named storms have formed during the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season since modern record-keeping began in 1950,” according to Ernesto Rodriguez, meteorologist at the National Weather Service forecast office in San Juan, Puerto Rico. “Usually conditions during this period are prime,” 

A few reasons may be the contributing heroes, and allowing us to raise a glass or two and give a sigh of relief.  Scientists, who study these happenings, believe it is due to a combination of events that suppress storm development, including persistent dry and stable air, strong vertical wind shear, and large areas of high pressure over the Atlantic. Saharan Devil Dust has also contributed to drier conditions, while higher-than-average surface pressures promote sinking air instead of rising air needed to fuel storms. It is this last factor that very well has caused many of the season’s storms that came off the African Coast to take a fish dive out into the open waters of the Atlantic. 

Also, there has been a decrease in the rainfall and thunderstorm activity in West Africa, which are often the starting point for tropical waves that can develop into hurricanes. 

“This factor is pretty positive for us in Puerto Rico,” Mr. Rodriguez commented.

Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, both agree that the slow season is primarily linked to a global atmospheric phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which moves high-pressure air masses eastward around the planet every month or two. High pressure air tends to be drier - hardly conducive to moisture-fueled hurricanes - and to sink, making it harder for a storm to develop convection, the upward movement of warmth that feeds tropical storms. 

The state of the MJO in August was such that low-pressure air, which can foster tropical activity, was positioned over the Atlantic Ocean; and sure enough Hurricane Erin formed and then exploded into a Cat 5 storm, albeit one that predominately stayed over the ocean. But by late August, the cycle had brought high-pressure air over the Atlantic, leading to the current lull. 

The lack of storms prompted the experts at Colorado State University (CSU) - the weather scientists who annually publish the most accurate hurricane predictions - to publish an explanatory note earlier this month. 

“There has been considerable discussion amongst meteorologists, the media and the general public about the recent quiet period for Atlantic hurricane activity,” the report stated, which called the phenomena “quite remarkable.”

Up to 80% of hurricane activity in the Atlantic occurs in August and September, but this year has seen only six named storms. NOAA had predicted an above-normal season with 13 to 18 named storms. Of those 5 to 9 were forecast to become hurricanes. 

“One of the issues plaguing the Atlantic this hurricane season has been insufficient instability,” according to the CSU report.  

In summation, there is a lot of scientific jargon to explain the slow season, all kinds of mind-bending terms, complicated theories, oscillating drawings on maps, but the real truth is, the one thing we know for sure about hurricanes - they are unpredictable. They come and go when they want, and they turn and go whichever way they want. It’s like the old Buster Keaton move, that he made famous, where he points in two directions at once to evade his pursuers, or points and spins in all directions to show which way the bad guys went. 

As far as the 2025 Hurricane Season is concerned - Don’t Look a gift horse in the mouth.