El Nino to Bring USVI Less 2026 Hurricane Activity

A.J. Pike

USVI - A potentially strong El Nino is expected to develop between June and August 2026, with a 62% chance of emerging and lasting through the year according to the latest forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, who are dubbing it a “Super El Nino event.” This warming of the Pacific Ocean is likely to drive up global temperatures and significantly influence weather patterns, including altering hurricane risks in the Atlantic and Pacific.

El Nino occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing vast volumes of warm ocean water to move from the Eastern Pacific toward the Americas. 

“Even though the evidence is still early, this could be a very significant event in 2026 and lingering into 2027,” said Daniel Swain, climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources.  

The pattern, which follows a fading La Nina, is expected to bring another hot year across the globe with the increase of flood risks in the South and Midwest of the U.S. The areas that could be targeted with an elevated flood risk include the Gulf Coast, Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley starting through March 2026 and continuing through the year. It is also expected to bring warmer than average temperatures to the Northern US and Canada.

The transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral is occurring quickly, with warm subsurface Pacific water already indicating a fast buildup. This cycle should last until July.  

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In periods ranging from about three to seven years, the surface waters across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from one degree centigrade to 3 degrees centigrade, compared to normal. This oscillating warming and cooling pattern, referred to as the ENSO cycle, directly affects rainfall distribution in the tropics and can have a strong influence on weather across the United States and other parts of the world. El Nino and La Nina are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral.   

La Nino’s potential to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity is due to higher wind shear occurring across the Atlantic starting from the Cape Verde Islands off the west African Coast. Wind shear - the change in wind speed or direction with height - is a critical factor that usually inhibits or weakens hurricanes by tilting their vertical structure, separating the upper-level clouds from the low-level center. High shear destroys a storm’s convective core, preventing strengthening, whereas low shear allows hurricanes to thrive.   

Note: At this time, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Producing Centres forecast is in agreement with NOAA’s outlook. The WMO does go on to state in their latest report that these approaching weather probabilities should be interpreted as guidance and treated with caution, especially in light of the lower predictability characteristic of the boreal spring transition, which is the critical seasonal shift from winter dormancy to active growth across high northern latitudes (HNL) typically occurring between March and July. It is characterized by a rapid landscape-scale change from frozen to non-frozen conditions.