NOAA: Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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NOAA: Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
A.J. Pike
USVI - With the 2026 Hurricane Season at the USVI doorstep, forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season ,which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The Atlantic Hurricane season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors. El Nino is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Nino conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.
“Although El Nino’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
“With the most advanced forecasting and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” stated Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of the storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”
